New optimistic conjecture of the hottest steel mar

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The new "optimistic" conjecture of the steel market

in the first half of this year, China's macroeconomic L-shaped stabilization situation has been established, which has laid a good foundation for the steel market, mainly manifested in the stable growth of consumer demand, the positive progress of supply side reform, the maintenance of a huge number of iron ore imports, the sharp rise in market prices year on year, the obvious increase in industry profits, enterprises' active production increase, and the steel sector has become the "leader" of the stock market. Chen Kexin of iron and steel believes that looking forward to the future market situation, in addition to the positive factors that continue to play their role, there are also new "optimistic conjectures", which promote the steel market to continue to heat up

first, the convening of the 19th CPC National Congress will generate confidence and encouragement. In the second half of this year, the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be held. It is expected that promoting consumption and stabilizing growth are still the dominant principles of the macro economy, and relevant measures will continue to be introduced, resulting in great confidence in all aspects of the steel market. 2. The basic performance dance of Jinan test fixture

second, finance has shifted to serving the real economy. Iron and steel Chen Kexin believed that the fifth national financial work conference held recently conveyed an important message: finance should serve the real economy, that is, all current and future financial reform, financial innovation and financial development should not deviate from the core goal of serving the real economy. This is conducive to monetary funds to get rid of "self idling" and "from virtual to real". The growth of the real economy is bound to lay the foundation for the prosperity of the steel market

third, the construction of world-class urban agglomerations and the interconnection of urban agglomerations. Since the reform and opening up, China has made great progress in urbanization. According to statistics, by the end of 2016, the number of Chinese cities had reached 657. In 2016, the urbanization rate of China's permanent population reached 57.4%. According to the registered residence population statistics of municipal districts at the end of 2015, there are 13 cities with a population of more than 5 million and 121 cities with a population of 1-3 million. Iron and steel Chen Kexin believes that even so, there is still a large gap with the urbanization rate of about 80% in developed countries. Compared with the huge population, the number of cities is significantly insufficient. Therefore, at this stage, China is still in a period of rapid urbanization, far from reaching the completed stage. With the gradual transfer of hundreds of millions of rural population and small town population to large and medium-sized cities and megacities, and with a large number of economic industries to existing cities, large cities with more than one million people will emerge in large numbers, such as rebuilding 100 large cities with more than one million people, so as to realize the settlement of hundreds of millions of rural population in cities, realize China's economic transformation, and realize the balanced development of all regions in the country

steel Chen Kexin believes that the emergence of more big cities will lead to world-class urban agglomerations in some regions, which need to realize the interconnection of these urban agglomerations and stimulate huge infrastructure investment. Recently, China's Guangdong Hong Kong Macao Great Bay area plan has been submitted to the national development and Reform Commission, and Zhejiang is also planning to ring the Hangzhou Bay Great Bay area, which has received a positive response from Shanghai. The construction planning of China's Dawan district involves many economically developed coastal provinces, which is bound to push its infrastructure and public facilities construction to a higher stage, such as a more efficient and convenient modern integrated transportation system, energy and water supply system, information and communication network system, which will stimulate trillions of infrastructure investment, This makes China's steel demand increase. The monolithic computer unit connected with the amplifier has great potential, and the market price is weak

fourth, global infrastructure investment will usher in a peak period. Iron and steel Chen Kexin believes that it also touches on the requirements for pre molding. At this stage, there are huge arrears in the global infrastructure in water supply, water conservancy, electricity, transportation, environmental protection and so on, which has become the main problem perplexing the current and future sustainable economic development. It is expected that governments around the world will invest a huge amount of money in infrastructure construction in the next few years. McKinsey & company estimates that in the next few years, the global average annual inflow of funds to infrastructure will be $2.5 trillion. OECD estimates are higher, with an average of $6.3 trillion per year for infrastructure construction from 2016 to 2030

steel Chen Kexin believes that such a large-scale investment in infrastructure construction will have a significant impact on China's steel market in two aspects: first, there is a strong demand for steel worldwide, which will promote China's trade exports, including direct and indirect exports (construction machinery, heavy trucks and related equipment). Second, the demand for smelting raw materials such as iron ore and coking coal has been rapidly increased, resulting in the price of relevant products in the international market strengthening or rising, thereby increasing China's costs

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