Top ten guesses of China's lubricant industry in 2

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Top ten guesses of China's lubricant industry in 2011

Guide: first, let price fly become the main theme of the industry. Probability of occurrence: 95% at the end of the year and the beginning of the year, a cold joke spread wildly on Weibo and major forums: following the release of "let bullets fly", the national development and Reform Commission has urgently released "let oil prices fly" in the early morning of the day before yesterday. And the annual blockbusters "let house prices fly", "let...

I." let prices fly "become the main theme of the industry. The probability of occurrence: 95%

at the end of the year and the beginning of the year, a cold joke spread wildly on Weibo and major forums:" after the release of "let bullets fly", the national development and Reform Commission has urgently released "let oil prices fly" in the early morning of the day before yesterday. While the annual blockbusters "let house prices fly" and "let prices fly" have always been popular "; Although the paragraph is a joke, it is also a fact: the continuous rise of prices has been a major problem that China's economy will continue to face in 2011

as we all know, the price of lubricating oil has a strong linkage with the international crude oil price; In December, 2010, the international oil price, which has been hovering at the US dollar level for a long time, finally began to work. 3. Sensor accuracy level: 0.02%;, Break through the $90 mark at one fell swoop and start to move towards the next goal - $110

when it comes to rising oil prices, it is easy to recall the roller coaster oil price in 2008; However, the biggest difference between 2011 and 2008 is that the price rise was largely speculation of hot money in the international market, and lacked a real demand basis, which was not the case this time

at present, the United States has begun to show clear signs of recovery. The retail sales in November 2010 increased by 7.7% compared with the same period last year, and the purchase volume of new and used cars in that month increased by 27% at an annual rate. In the 12 months to October 2010, the average wage of Americans increased by 3.4% over the same period last year, the largest annual increase in more than 30 months. The total GDP of the United States in the fourth quarter of 2010 has returned to the highest level in history before the start of this round of economic recession. It is expected that the economic growth rate for the whole year of 2011 will reach 3.75%

therefore, in 2011, the economic growth demand of the world's two largest economies, the United States and China, will reach about 55000 tons/year, which will become the strongest support for the global oil price. The international oil price will almost certainly exceed $100 in the first quarter, and the $110 mark is just around the corner

in fact, throughout the second half of 2010, lubricant enterprises were enduring the pressure brought by the rising price of raw materials. With the increasing increase, enterprises have raised product prices since December. It is expected that in 2011, the whole industry will see a round of price increases, with an annual increase of more than 30%. Let prices fly will become the main theme of China's lubricant market in 2011

Second, butterfly effect: the probability of impact on the car lubricant market: 30%

the day before Christmas Eve, the Beijing municipal government sent a "super depressing" Christmas "gift to China's car industry: the total amount of" lottery for cars "will be controlled for the registration of new cars in Beijing, with a total of only 240000 cars in the whole year, compared with 750000 in 2010

500000 cars, calculated at an average price of 100000 yuan, is a sales loss of 50 billion yuan. As the capital, Beijing's new congestion control policy will not only affect Beijing's market, but also be more likely to form a demonstration effect on other major cities with serious road congestion, such as Guangzhou, and then have a greater impact on the entire car industry

the reduction of new car sales will inevitably have a certain impact on the car lubricant market, especially in the first tier cities; Those lubricant enterprises that directly cooperate with automobile enterprises to load vehicles will be more adversely affected. Private lubricant enterprises whose main markets are in the second and third tier markets and lubricant enterprises whose main markets are diesel engine oil sales will be less impacted

of course, in essence, "lottery for cars" is not a very scientific way to solve the problem of urban traffic congestion. The Beijing municipal government has also said that the number of "240000 vehicles" will be adjusted every year in the future; At the same time, for some time in the future, the entire automobile industry will also run and cry for changing this restrictive measure; In terms of the overall situation of the national automobile industry, the most conservative growth rate in 2011 is estimated to still exceed 10%; Therefore, we expect that the "Butterfly Effect" on the lubricant market brought about by Beijing's new policy to control congestion is expected to gradually weaken in oneortwo years

III. probability of emergence of Sn engine oil: 40%

oil enthusiasts all know that the quality grade of the highest grade gasoline engine oil is SM. However, since October 1, 2010, the crown of SM has officially given way to SN. Since the same day, API has accepted the certification of Sn engine oil worldwide, and the new certification standard gf-5 for energy-saving engine oil has also been issued

compared with SM gasoline engine oil, Sn has better fuel economy and stability, is more in line with the future development trend of low-carbon and energy saving in the automotive industry, and can also meet the needs of higher-level emission standards such as Euro VI. therefore, in the next two to three years, Sn will become the leading product in the future high-end gasoline engine oil market

at present, dozens of lubricant enterprises worldwide have passed the SN certification of API, and several certified Sn engine oils such as "Longpan supreme" of Longpan lubricant and JINJIXING IV of Great Wall Lubricant have been first listed in December. 2011 will be a year for Sn engine oil to emerge in the market. As for how much spray this product can cause, It depends on the ability of the sales and marketing departments of various enterprises to "cross the sea with eight immortals and show their magic powers"

IV. National IV standard: the future is bright. The probability of twists and turns: 75%

the same as the Procrastination of "next year after next year" when the national III emission standard was implemented in that year, the implementation time of the National IV emission standard that was fished out one hour later is also a mess throughout the country; If you carefully read the websites, you will find that there are at least three different versions of 2010, 2011 and 2012

at present, the Ministry of environmental protection is the most optimistic about the treatment of National IV standard, while most automobile manufacturers take a wait-and-see attitude

at the China internal combustion engine development forum hosted by China Automotive News on November 30, dufangci, Secretary General of the association of automobile manufacturers, said that it was "completely unrealistic" in response to the recent Ministry of environmental protection putting the National IV emission standard on the agenda, mainly based on the fact that the National IV diesel oil supply problem is still not expected to be completely solved in 2011. It is not difficult to see from the cases that the implementation of the National IV standard in Nanjing and other places was forced to be delayed for several months due to inadequate diesel supply. This statement is not without basis. The implementation of the National IV emission standard, especially the National IV emission standard for commercial vehicles, will still be a "tortuous road" in 2011

on the other hand, the prospect that the National IV emission standard will eventually be achieved in the future is optimistic; Low carbon and emission reduction have become the consensus of the whole country. In terms of passenger cars with less resistance to the implementation of the National IV standard, the Ministry of environmental protection has stipulated that from July 1 next year, passenger cars and other light vehicles sold nationwide must meet the national phase IV motor vehicle emission standard (hereinafter referred to as the National IV standard); This means that the sales volume of gasoline engine oil above SL grade will increase significantly from the second half of next year; In terms of commercial vehicles, the new vehicles delivered by major domestic commercial vehicle manufacturers have basically reached the National IV standard. Therefore, diesel engine oil above ci-4 will gradually replace CH-4 engine oil and become the standard engine oil grade for high-end commercial vehicles in the next two to three years

v. the probability of the resurgence of CCTV advertising war: 40%

since the massive CCTV advertising investment of many lubricant brands from 2003 to 2004, it has been difficult to see the scene of lubricant enterprises throwing heavy money at CCTV, but in 2011, this pattern will be broken: unified lubricant spent 100million and won the title of "event broadcasting partner" of CCTV five sports channels for two years; Longpan lubricant, a cutting-edge lubricant in the industry, was also a surprise winner. It successfully participated in the bidding of the new program "infinite popularity" that CCTV 4 cooperated with Taiwan's Zhongtian TV station for increasing the production of fine chemical raw materials in the downstream ethylene industry chain, and creatively shot a fashionable and sports "Parkour advertisement", which is scheduled to be fully broadcast after the Spring Festival. At the same time, at least a dozen other lubricant brands also chose to appear on CCTV in 2011

with the "increasingly smart" consumers and the dilution of media concentration, domestic industries as a whole have gone through the stage of relying on CCTV advertising to smash brands, but the role of CCTV advertising in promoting brand awareness and reputation can not be ignored. I'm afraid this is the main reason why lubricant companies pay special attention to CCTV advertising this year. However, whether the intensive launch of various brands will evolve into another round of "CCTV advertising war" in the lubricant industry remains to be further observed

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